How to read the result

The number in large type is the median — the date by which half of the last 30 years had seen their first autumn frost. It is a coin flip, not a deadline.

The table gives the shape of the distribution:

If you plan against the median you will be caught out in half of all years. Plan against the early date and treat the median as the point where it becomes likely rather than possible.

Air frost, not ground frost

These dates are air frost: the daily minimum air temperature reaching 0 °C at the standard measuring height of about 1.5 metres, shaded and ventilated.

Ground frost arrives earlier and more often. On a clear, still night the ground and low foliage radiate heat directly to the sky and end up two to four degrees below the air above them. So your lawn, your car roof and your tender bedding will whiten on nights when the official minimum never reached freezing.

For a gardener that is the more important number, and it means the practical trigger sits above zero — treat a forecast low of 3 °C or below on a clear calm night as a possible frost. The mechanism is in at what temperature frost forms.

Why there is no zip code box

The search term people use is "first frost date by zip code", and this lookup deliberately does not offer one.

A zip code covers an area, sometimes a large and topographically varied one, and turning it into a single point requires a centroid dataset this site does not carry. A result derived that way would look more precise than it is while quietly picking a point for you.

Naming the point instead is more honest and no less useful, because either way the real work is adjusting for your own garden — which the published date cannot do for you.

Adjusting for your own site

The difference between one end of a garden and the other can exceed the difference between towns.

Frost earlier than the nearest point: valley bottoms and hollows, the low corner of a slope, open ground with a clear view of the sky, behind a solid fence across a slope, and anywhere noticeably higher in elevation.

Frost later: against a south or west-facing wall, under a tree canopy or pergola, close to a building, beside a large body of water, and inside a town rather than outside it.

The mechanisms — cold-air drainage, radiative cooling, thermal mass and the urban heat island — are set out in hyperlocal weather and temperature inversions.

Two seasons of notes beats any climatology

Write down the date of your first frost and the forecast low that night. After two or three years you will know both your own date and your own offset from the forecast, which is the one piece of information no published dataset has.

What the dates mean for the calendar

Working backwards from your own early date: